Wednesday, September 6, 2017

NFL Season Predictions 2017

NFL Season Predictions 2017



Tomorrow, NFL Football is FINALLY back.  For anyone wondering, I am now busy every Monday, Thursday, and Sunday night from now till early February.  Calls will go straight to voicemail and texts may go un-answered.  If you need to get in touch, your best bet is to write your message with pepperoni on a pizza and slide it under the door.  I'll get back to you on February 5th.  On to the picks!

AFC North



RAVENS
I always wait until at least after the 3rd Preseason game to write this post, because there always seems to be one team that's just destroyed by injuries.  That team this year is the Baltimore Ravens.  Since June 1st, the Ravens have averaged placing 1 player on IR every 2 weeks.  And those are just the players out for the season.  I'm not even talking about the other players expected to miss multiple weeks.  All of these injuries have virtually destroyed any chance they had of winning the AFC North this season.  On top of all that, Bell just signed his franchise tag, so get ready two more losses Baltimore.  

STEELERS
The Steelers continue to amaze me by playing hardball with maybe the best RB in the league in Bell.  At just age 25, he'll probably be among the leagues best for another 4 or 5 years, yet they continue to avoid the multi-year contract to "keep their options open" i guess.  Regardless, they have maybe the best RB and WR combo in the NFL and I would predict points-a-plenty (that means draft Bell or Brown in fantasy by the way).  

BENGALS
Cincinnati's only real changes were those of rookie draft picks Joe Mixon and John Ross who should have an eventual positive impact on the offense, but I believe that this impact will be later rather than sooner.  Also, Vontaze Burfict still refuses to play nicely with others.  What else is new.  Him and Suh must have a wager going to see who can be suspended for the most games in their careers.

BROWNS
The Browns on the other hand we're quite the interesting team to watch this offseason.  With a new quarterback at the helm in Kizer, have the Browns finally found a player to build a team around?  If I had to guess, I would say this about Kizer's potential success in the NFL:  "We'll see".  Pretty in-depth analytics there I know.  In all seriousness, he looks pretty decent.  Of course, it could just be because he was playing directly after Osweiler.  The old "surround yourself with worse players to look better" trick.  Works like a charm.

Pittsburgh Steelers       12-4
Baltimore Ravens           7-9
Cincinnati Bengals        6-10
Cleveland Browns         4-12


AFC South



COLTS
Andrew Luck had better get healthy quick.  Aside from the Jets, I'll pick any team in the NFL to beat the Colts in his absence.  Their backup QB situation is shaky at best and that team will go absolutely nowhere without Luck.  Not much else to say about this squad.  Essentially the same team as last year with a few minor additions/subtractions, so expect the same results.  What's the definition of insanity again?  Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result..... yeah.

JAGUARS
Speaking of bad QB situations, how about those Jaguars?  Blake Bortles has somehow gotten progressively worse since his rookie season after appearing to be a promising young player.  Mark my words: The Jags WILL be picking a QB in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft.  On the other side of the ball, the good news is their defense should take another step forward.  Unfortunately, they'll be on the field a lot between Bortles throwing picks and Fournette's inability to stay on the field.  I hate to predict injuries, but between his high-risk running style and his past injury history, it's only a matter of time before he's added to the injury report.  A shame, because I think he has a chance to be a really good player if he had a better O-line.  

TEXANS
Prayers for Houston as they rebuild their city.  In the football world, there's reasons for optimism in Houston not only for drafting what looks like a good player in Watson, but also ridding themselves of the terrible contract that was Brock Osweiler.  It's rare that you get a chance to get out of a bad contract in professional sports, but the Texans found a way.  Their defense should be among the elite again this season, but question marks remain on the offense.  Can they put up enough points to win the division for a 3rd consecutive year?  Maybe, if Tennessee wasn't standing in the way.  

TITANS
Tennessee is the best team in the AFC South on paper and in reality.  Marcus Mariota is a fantastic NFL quarterback in the making.  He's progressed every year as an NFL QB should (take note Bortles) and finally has some legit weapons at his disposal in Eric Decker and Corey Davis.  The one-two punch with Murray and Henry is the envy of most NFL backfields.  For those pointing to the Titans poor preseason outings, I would point to Mariota's 110 rating with 2 TDs in 36 throws and the fact that Murray only has 6 rushing attempts all preseason.  Yeah, I believe they'll be just fine.

Tennessee Titans          11-5
Houston Texans              8-8
Indianapolis Colts          6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars       5-11


AFC East



JETS
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.  Let's start with the Ugly:  The New York Jets.  If there was ever a team trying harder to lose than the Jets this season, I don't remember them.  Mainly, because I don't spend valuable brain space remembering terrible teams.  Seriously, almost every move this offseason has looked like it's a move to lose, including trading Sheldon Richardson to Seattle.  Kearse can only help you if you have a QB who can actually get him the ball.  

BILLS
The Bills trading Sammy Watkins was puzzling as well.  Jordan Matthews isn't in the same tier as Watkins and now McCoy can expect to have to play against loaded boxes because they don't have a true vertical threat anymore.  The Bills seem like they're always a couple players away from making the playoffs, and then they do something to get worse.  I project the longest playoff drought in the NFL continues at least another year.  

DOLPHINS
Miami is the closest to unseating the perpetual AFC East Champion Patriots, but they too have some issues.  Cutler in for Tannehill is essentially a lateral move, but their schedule is more difficult by facing the NFC South instead of the NFC West.  Wins will be hard to come by in Miami this season.  They have the talent to prove me wrong, but something about a Cutler-led squad leaves me with little faith in the Dolphins playoff hopes.  Sorry Miami, but I have a lot of experience rooting for Cutler-led teams.

PATRIOTS
Then there's the Patriots.  I'm sure I'll get a lot of flack about this after their first loss, but I'm all in on this squad this year - undefeated.  That may seem crazy, but let's review the evidence:

1. Tom Brady lost 1 game last year - vs Seattle on a last minute no-call in the endzone.
2. The Patriots added Brandin Cooks, Mike Gillislee, Dwayne Allen on Offense and they maintained a majority of their Super Bowl winning defense.
3. The NFL schedule has set them up for their best chance to go undefeated since 2007.  Their toughest games are @ home vs the Falcons (Tom Brady has a 120 and 21 record at home), @ the Broncos (directly after their bye), @ the Steelers (The Patriots have beat the Steelers 5 out of the last 6 times they've played) @ the Raiders (Actually in Mexico City, so essentially a "road game" that's actually at a neutral site), and vs the Chiefs at home (where the Patriots are 14-1 in home openers since 2002).

It's easy to pick them to lose a game or two if you don't pick the game associated with the loss, but when you actually have to pick a specific team to beat them on their schedule... Good Luck.  I can't remember a team being more of a favorite to return to the Super Bowl as the Patriots are this season.

New England Patriots    16-0
Miami Dolphins              7-9
Buffalo Bills                  6-10
New York Jets               1-15


AFC West



RAIDERS
Behold, the best division in football!  Honestly, if the AFC West didn't have to play each other, I think all 4 of these teams could make the playoffs this season.  I believe we should all thank the Raiders for coaxing Marshawn Lynch out of retirement.  The NFL is much more fun with Beast Mode barreling over defenders and making press conferences worth watching.  The Raiders also possess one of the best O-lines in the NFL, so I could see this being a match made in heaven.  Derek Carr has continued to progress as well.  He's looking like a franchise player and it's possible we'll look back at the Raiders draft of Carr and Mack as one of the team's best all time.

CHIEFS
The Chiefs made one of the most interesting moves this season by drafting Mahomes in the first round.  This is a team that's a few pieces away from a Super Bowl run, so drafting a QB in the first round really speaks to how much they believe in Mahomes.  Kareem Hunt will have his hands full taking the lead back role in Ware's absence.  We'll see if he can adapt to the NFL pass protection required of RB's.  That's usually the biggest weak spot of rookie running backs.

BRONCOS Denver may have had the most uneventful offseason of all.  They did a bit to improve their offensive line, but the biggest takeaway I had throughout their preseason is that Paxton Lynch does not look good.  He still looks uncomfortable in the pocket and makes erratic decisions.  Not exactly the progress Denver is looking for out of their former first round selection.  The saving grace of this group is that their defense should still be among the league's elite.  That should be enough to win a good amount of games, but this group will likely struggle against the league's elite teams.  Still, the playoffs are within reach if they can conjure up enough offense.

CHARGERS To Ron Burgandy and the whole Channel 4 News team's dismay, the Chargers are no longer in San Diego.  It must be nice to live in a city where there's simply too much else to do besides watch football.  Anyway, the Los Angeles Chargers didn't acquire much to help their team take a step forward, but they're finally healthy.  No NFL team had more players end up on IR than the Chargers.  Simply put, we have no idea what this squad is capable of because next to none of them played last season.  Keenan Allen looks great and Melvin Gordon looks like he has vision; the one knock I had on him before the preseason.  All in all, this squad is one that teams will not look forward to facing because I believe they're going to be unpredictable.  As in, some weeks they'll stand with the class of the NFL, and other weeks they'll fall to teams with much less talent then they have.  In other words, different city, same team.

Oakland Raiders           11-5
Kansas City Chiefs        10-6
Denver Broncos             9-7
Los Angeles Chargers     8-8



NFC North



PACKERS
The Packers own the NFC North.  As a Bears fan, it pains me to admit that, but it's true.  Aaron Rodgers is 39-13 against the NFC North in his career and he'll continue to be dominant until he retires or gets hit by a bus.  The Packers problem this year (as with virtually every year) is their defense.  They should be better than last year, but there are still question marks all over the place on defense.  The Packers attempted to address this in the draft by selecting 4 defensive players with their first 4 picks, but even with these selections I'm still not sold on this group.  The simple fact is there are offenses who rival Green Bay this season, so they'll need 110% from their defense to keep up with groups like the Patriots and Falcons.

VIKINGS
The Vikings are probably the next closest to competing in this division, but I can't get on board with that offense yet.  Really, the Vikings and Packers should just form an alliance and run the Packers offense with the Vikings defense.  That'd be a Super Bowl team: The Green Bay Vikings.  Alas, it's not meant to be (something about league rules and whatnot), so the Vikings will march out Sam Bradford and his dump off skills with new rookie running back Dalvin Cook.  Cook has all the talent needed to succeed, but he's playing behind a below-average offensive line in an offense that he'll need to be the focal point.  That's a lot of pressure on a rookie and I project he'll struggle in pass protection early on, but eventually be a good foundation to build the offense on.

LIONS
For those of you who haven't heard: Matthew Stafford is now the highest paid player in the NFL.  This offseason, the Lions gave Stafford a 5-Year $132,000,000 contract with a whopping $92,000,000 guaranteed.  The highest paid player in NFL history is now a 29 year old quarterback who has never won a playoff game.  Ok, I realize I'm not exactly being fair to Stafford as he is a talented quarterback, but I'm using these facts to illustrate 2 points:  1) Every year there will be another record contract from a quarterback and 2) There are two types of teams in the NFL:  Those with a franchise quarterback and those who would do anything to get one.  If Kirk Cousins accepts anything less than Stafford next season, he should fire his agent and I'll go represent him for a tenth of the cost.  In other news, the defense is essentially still intact, and Abdullah is actually somewhat healthy so the running game should be more consistent.  Although, if it were me, I think I'd put in Zach Zenner over Abdullah.  He looked like what a lot of people project McCaffrey to look like this season.  The big change in the Lions record this season has to do with their schedule being much more difficult than last season.  Luckily, since they never do anything in the playoffs anyway, the only difference is that they'll have a higher draft pick next year.  Spend it on a competent secondary.

BEARS
Then we have the Bears.  It's been a roller coaster offseason for Chicago fans.  We went from hope to getting Jimmy Garoppolo, to disgust with the front office for drafting Trubisky, to screaming at the front office to start Trubisky over Glennon.  Emotions fared, name calling emerged, and after the smoke cleared I think all Bears fans can join me in my overall thoughts from the offseason: I'm as excited as I've been in a long time.  Trubisky looks like the best quarterback in this class.  His accuracy, mobility, pocket awareness, and command of the offense looks like a player who's been in the league for years.  He'll make his fair share of rookie mistakes, but at the end of the day, he has all the tools to be successful in the NFL.  The only question is will the Bears hinder is development.  Hopefully not.... Other than that as most people would suspect, this team isn't winning many games this season.  They have a difficult schedule (as does the whole NFC North) and just had their #1 WR go down on IR.  There are bright spots to be found on the Bears, so Bears fans focus on those encouraging moments, because there will be a lot of bad football in-between.

Green Bay Packers         12-4
Minnesota Vikings            8-8
Detroit Lions                  6-10
Chicago Bears                4-12


NFC South



FALCONS
This one will sting for years Falcon's fans.  Possibly the worst choke in Super Bowl history.  You just had to convert ONE 3rd down.  Oh well, there's always next year.  Except this year they'll be without one of the best offensive minds in the game in Kyle Shanahan.  As well, the Falcons were among the only teams in the NFL that had all 5 offensive linemen play together all year.  Almost every other team had at least 1 injury in that department.  The odds of that happening again are not good.  Nevertheless, this is still an elite offensive team with a slightly above average defense who should bounce back to at least have another shot in the playoffs, even if things aren't set up quite as nice as last season.

SAINTS
I'd bet my paycheck that Adrian Peterson retires a Viking.  I'm not projecting he'll leave the Saints and head back to Minnesota. I just think the Vikings will do one of those dumb 1 day contracts so he can retire a Viking.  Come on, everyone knows that's not the same thing as "Retiring a Viking".  It's about as useless as bringing out the chains to measure a first down when it completely depends on where the ref put the ball in the first place.  I am interested to see how the Saints use Peterson.  Historically he isn't a strong receiver out of the backfield, but I can't imagine a Saints offense where that isn't built into his duties.  The Saints made a good move signing him in my opinion because really, what do you have to lose?  You have the cap money to spend this season and why not take a risk on a running back who will do down as one of the all time greats?  The Saints big problem is running back wasn't one of their "weak positions" last season.  There simply weren't the free agents this season out there to fill the Saints needs.

PANTHERS
Did you know that the Panthers were the only team in the last 8 years to lose the Super Bowl and miss the playoffs the next year?  Not the lone company you want to be in, but things are looking up for this squad.  Christian McCaffrey looks like the same dynamic player he looked like in College.  He has maybe the best ability to find holes in defenses of any running back in this draft.  But he's still a rookie and I believe the Panthers will still work Stewart in a healthy amount this season.  Also, a year later, I still don't understand getting rid of Norman.  I do think Norman is overrated, but he was their best CB and they basically decided to get rid of him a year before they had to for... nothing I guess.  All in all, if Cam can stay healthy this season, they should be a better balanced offense and have a good chance to get back to having a winning record.

BUCCANEERS
Winston is a frustrating player to watch.  Some games he'll showcase unbelievable athleticism and make incredible throws with pin-point accuracy.  And then sometimes he'll look like he did in the preseason.  He throws some of the worst picks you'll ever see a starting quarterback throw (although the Jets may have something to say about that).  Luckily for him, the talent around him this season is considerably better than last season and he actually might have a running game this season.  Also, Tampa Bay got one of the best value's in this year's draft with O.J. Howard falling as far as he did right into their lap.  I project Winston and Howard to have quite the connection for years to come.  In the end, I believe Winston will be able to cut out enough of his mistakes to give the Buccaneers a legitimate shot to make the playoffs this season.

Atlanta Falcons              10-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    9-7
Carolina Panthers            9-7
New Orleans Saints         7-9


NFC East



REDSKINS
I am shocked at how the Redskins are handling the Kurt Cousins contract situation.  I believe he's a top 15 quarterback in the league.  A quarterback that about half of the teams wouldn't think twice about giving a long term contract to.  I don't think they'll let him get away, but if they do he'll be the starting quarterback for Shanahan once again in San Francisco.  On offense, they added Pryor to try to replace DeSean Jackson, which in my eyes is a slight bump up.  It's rare for a free agent wide receiver to make a big impact in their first season, so I'd tell Washington fans to curb their expectations, but there's reason for optimism.  All things considered, this is a pretty good football team with the unfortunate reality of playing in the loaded NFC East.  They'd be a playoff team in some other divisions.

EAGLES
The Eagles were probably the hardest team to project a record for this season.  Mainly because no one knows what Wentz will look like this season.  He had a pretty good rookie year, but will he go through a sophomore slump or build off of his success?  The biggest hole in the Eagles roster is probably still running back even after acquiring Blount from the Patriots.  Having a sub-par running game will make Wentz's job that much harder, but he does now have Alshon Jeffrey who (if he can stay healthy) has shown that he can be a #1 wide receiver.  His progression is the single biggest priority of the Eagles this season.

COWBOYS
Ezekiel Elliot will be suspended the full 6 games.  The NFL is not backing down on this one.  The NFL is protecting the brand and frankly I don't think there's any way Elliot wins his lawsuit.  He'll delay it as long as he can, but the end result is still going to be him riding the bench for 6 weeks.  Luckily for the Cowboys, their really tough games happen later in the season, so they should have him back for those.  The Cowboys worries don't hinge on Elliot's availablity though; they rest on how their defense is going to stop opposing offenses.  The Cowboys have one of the worst defensive groups in the league this season and they will have to face some of the NFL's most high powered offenses.  Therefore, I have broken down a simple math equation to project the Cowboys wins:  Elliot (#21) - 6 games = 15 - # of letters in "Dallas" (6) = 9 wins
Sorry Cowboys fans.  That math is rock solid.

GIANTS
If only this squad had a running game... Seriously, the Giants have an excellent defense and should have a stellar passing game with the addition of Brandon Marshall opposite Beckham.  Their problem teams will simply not fear their running ability.  This offense has a so-so O-line with a less than spectacular group of running backs.  That adds up to a whole lot of extra DB's on the field ready to minimize all the holes in the passing defense.  Eli needs to be ready to throw some extremely accurate passes, otherwise this team will have a hard time moving the ball.  Luckily for the Giants, he's done it before, and he can do it again.  They have the talent to win the division this season.

New York Giants          10-6
Dallas Cowboys             9-7
Washington Redskins     9-7
Philadelphia Eagles        8-8

NFC West



CARDINALS
For our last stop in our divisional previews we have a division that just a few seasons ago many people would have said was the NFL's best.  Yet they've fallen a long way since the Harbaugh-Carroll rivalry days and have left us with one of the worst divisions in football.  The Cardinals surprised me and many other people with how bad they played last season.  On paper, they looked like they could be ready to make another Super Bowl run, but when the whistle was blown, they tripped on the first hurdle.  Granted they had a lot of injuries last season, but so did virtually every team.  In the end, I view this team in the same way I view the Panthers: There's too much talent on this team to have another bad season like that.  I project a bounce back year with a possibility for ta playoff appearance.

SEAHAWKS
If the Seahawks could just get a decent offensive line, they would rival the Patriots for the most talented roster in the NFL.  Yet, they start the season with maybe the leagues worst O-line and a group of running backs where no one has done anything to separate themselves from the pack.  Still, this remains one of the NFL's best defenses with a quarterback who looks ready to take the next step in Wilson.  If the offensive line can keep him upright enough, he should be able to lead this squad to another NFC West title.

RAMS
Don't push the panic button on Goff yet, Rams fans.  Although, you may want to have your finger ready just in case.  Goff has looked... eh, decent this preseason and Jeff Fischer a.k.a the "quaterback killer" is gone.  Honestly, if I were the Rams, I would take a page out of the Vikings playbook of old and run the entire offense through Gurley.  Granted Gurley is no Peterson, but he's a very talented running back who can break tackles and catch out of the backfield.  Also the addition of Sammy Watkins should help the running game, because if he can stay on the field, defenses may actually have to respect the Rams vertical passing game.  Maybe Gurley won't have to run against a loaded box all season.  Maybe.

49ERS
The 49ers begin the season in full rebuilding mode and while they won't win a lot of games this season, SF fans should feel good about the direction their squad is moving.  I believe Shanahan will do a fantastic job with this group and in a year or two I project they will be a very good football team.  The 49ers know that this next draft is absolutely loaded with quarterback talent which happens to be their weakest position.  I believe their management has done a good job planning for a team that's going to have a relatively quick turnaround to be one of the better teams in the NFL.  All things considered, I like the direction the 49ers are heading, but this season will be a rough one.  Sit tight 49ers fans.  Better days are ahead.

Seattle Seahawks             11-5
Arizona Cardinals               9-7
San Francisco 49ers          5-11
Los Angeles Rams             3-13


Super Bowl 52 Prediction:
I'll take the New England Patriots to defeat the Green Bay Packers  34 - 27

Enjoy the season everyone!

Saturday, February 4, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2017 - Super Bowl

NFL Playoffs 2017 - Super Bowl
As both of my regular readers know, every year I do a special analysis for both teams playing in the Super Bowl.  This year, there are 9 categories and the team with the edge in the most categories will be my pick to bring home the Lombardi Trophy.  In the words of Heath Ledgers joker: "And here...we....go."

Quarterback
Matt Ryan has taken his skill to another level this season.  I was resistant to admit this for a long time because of how much talent is on that offense, but he's played outstanding throughout the playoffs and deserves some credit.  Brady, on the other hand, is on another level entirely.  I don't think any quarterback does more with less than Brady.  Superbowl win or not this season, he's the most accomplished QB to ever play the game and will soon be known as the greatest to ever play.  He gets the nod here.

Patriots: 1
Falcons: 0

Running Game
This was actually a surprisingly difficult category.  I love both of these teams 1-2 punch.  Lewis and Blount are a little more specialized in what they do with Blount running most goal line runs and tough yardage situations.  Freeman and Coleman have been on fire for most of the season as well and I have to give them the nod here because of their big play ability in the passing game.  Good luck NE linebackers.

Patriots: 1
Falcons: 1

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
This may have been a harder category to peg if Gronk was healthy.  Seems like I type that sentence a lot when talking about Gronk.  I'm not sure there's a corner in the league right now who can cover Julio 1 on 1.  His combination of height, speed, and route running is unmatched right now in the NFL.  Even at less than full strength, he and the rest of ATL's WR core are going to give NE all they can handle.

Patriots: 1
Falcons: 2

Offensive Line
This was the hardest category to pick.  If I gave out ties, I would give one out here because both of these O-line's deserve a lot of credit and recognition.  They've been the overwhelming reason why their offenses are some of the leagues best.  After much consideration, I'd give a slight nod to NE's line because of how few hit's they've allowed on Brady this season.  If they can keep that up, maybe Brady really will be able to play forever.

Patriots: 2
Falcons: 2

Defensive Line
The Patriots are the #1 scoring defense this season and their defensive line is a large reason why.  They've been very good shutting down the run all season which helps cover up their holes in the secondary.  The Falcon's on the other hand, have really had some players on the D-line step up as of late, but when making this pick I wen't with the team with more sacks.  Unfortunately, they had the same number of sacks.... but the Patriots did it in significantly less snaps.

Patriots: 3
Falcons: 2

Secondary
I like what the Falcons have put together in the secondary this season, but in every measurable way the Patriots secondary is better.  They both need help at the safety position.  The difference here is the Falcon's are going to have a difficult time covering the Patriots WR's in the middle of the field.  Look for Brady and Co to exploit that whenever possible.

Patriots: 4
Falcons: 2

Special Teams
Gostkowski actually had somewhat of an off year.  Only 84% completion???  I could beat that in paper triangle football.  Matt Bryant on the other hand, had maybe his best year ever with almost 92% completion.  Both teams don't really have great kick returners, so Bryant's success moves the Falcons ahead in this category.

Patriots: 4
Falcons: 3

Coaching
Dan Quinn has done an amazing job with these Falcons.  He finally earned the respect of his players and it's shown.  Thanks to Quinn, Falcons fans can look forward to having an above average defense every season he's in charge.  Business as usual for the Patriots and that's why they get the nod here.  No coach is as consistent as Bill Belichick.  Well... consistently great that is.  A lot of coaches are consistently bad...

Patriots: 5
Falcons: 3

Intangibles
The "Intangibles" category has to do with things like how the team is prepared for the pressure of the big game, unexpected situations, and the ability to adjust game plans on the fly if needed.  This may not seem like a category that matters as much as the others, but in the Super Bowl, things seem to rarely go "according to plan".  While I believe both teams should be in the upper half of the league in this category, I believe NE is the best in the league at this.  No team is more prepared than the Patriots.  I'm no detective, but there's probably some correlation between being prepared and making the Super Bowl all the time...

Patriots: 6
Falcons: 3


Conclusion
There you have it.  The Patriots take 6 of the 9 categories this season over the Falcons.  Even with this somewhat large category spread, I still predict a close game with the Patriots just edging out the Falcons for Brady/Belichick's 5th Super Bowl trophy.  Make sure you watch Goodell's face when he hands Brady the Lombardi trophy.  That should be fun.  Enjoy the game everybody!

Patriots 31 - 27

Sunday, January 22, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2017 - Conference Championships

NFL Playoffs 2017 - Conference Championships

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons




This is the hardest game I've had to pick this season.  By all logical reasoning, the Falcons should win this game.  It just feels like the Packers year...

Packers 35 - 31

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots


Patriots are 50 - 1 at home since 2007.  That's the only stat you need.

Patriots 26 - 17

Saturday, January 14, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2017 - Divisional Round

Current Postseason Record: 4 - 0

I'll admit, last weeks games were much easier to pick than this weeks will be.  Luckily, this usually means that we're in for some better games than we had last week.  The Packers-Cowboys game is sure to set all kinds of viewer records and to be honest, I don't think it's the best game this week.  Onward:

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons


Actually an underrated game this week.  This is a rare opportunity when we see strength vs strength with Atlanta's explosive offense vs the Seahawks feared defense.  Usually when this happens, the team with the defensive advantage comes away with the win, but this time, I think the loss of Earl Thomas combined with a Atlanta Defense that's been playing better will spell doom for the Seahawks.

Falcons 24 - 20

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

The only real question here is will the Patriots win by 16 like their Vegas spread suggests.  I predict they cover the spread easily.

Patriots 31 - 13


Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

I've been back and forth with this game all week.  The biggest problem with a team having a bye during wild card week is that we forget how good they really were to earn that bye.  Especially when the team playing them had a showing like the Packers did last week.  Honestly, we know what Aaron Rodgers is at this point and we know what the Cowboys will try to do on offense, so this game comes down to how the rookies of Dallas perform.  If they can stick to their plan and control the clock, they should have a great shot to beat Green Bay.  The problem with this is as Mike Tyson used to say: "Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth".

Packers 28 - 24


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

While I'm sure the Packers-Cowboys matchup will be great to watch, in my opinion, THIS is the game of the weekend.  Andy Reid is an absurd 19 - 3 coming off of bye weeks and he likely knew that he'd be facing the Steelers all along.  The Steelers, on the other hand, are one of footballs hottest teams coming off a demolishing of a 10-6 Dolphins team.  Can the Chiefs do enough to stop Bell and Brown?  I'm actually asking.  I have no idea.....

Steelers 23 - 20





Friday, January 6, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2017 - Wild Card Round

Blah Blah Blah Intro Intro Intro....

On to the picks:


Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans


What a snoozer.  One team benched it's $72 million dollar quarterback and the other one is starting a rookie quarterback who's never started an NFL game in his career.  The Vegas over/under for points scored in this game is a whopping 37 combined.  If you're not familiar with Vegas lines, that's one of the lowest for a playoff game we've seen this decade.  And you can bet that's not because both teams are going to have a historic "Defensive Battle".  Houston's defensive front in my eyes is enough to stop the Raiders running game and I think they know if they can do that, the Raiders are toast.  I think they do exactly that.


Texans 20 - 13



Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

When watching Sunday's Packers Lions game, I spent a good amount of time contemplating if it was better to win or lose that game.  Seattle is never an easy place to play, but I wouldn't want to be going up against the Giants right now with their defense playing so well and Eli Manning at the helm.  The Seahawks offense has been stagnant again and while there's plenty of blame to go around, much of it falls on their patchwork offensive line.  Their highest paid offensive linemen is making less than $1 million this year in base salary.  That's not a position that you can afford to under pay even with an elusive quarterback like Wilson.  As bad as the Seahawks woes are, the Lions still have it worse.  In fact, their the only team in the NFC playoffs this season who I do not believe may have a legitimate shot to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.  In Stafford's last 4 weeks he's thrown 5 interceptions (which really should have been 6), compared to 3 touchdowns (which really should have been 2).  Stafford continues to miss people in the passing game and if he and the lions want to improve, he needs to be able to put together a full season.

Seahawks 24 - 17




Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers

By this time, I bet the Steelers players are sick of watching tape from their previous matchup with the Dolphins this year.  They were run over, thrown on, and demolished in every sense of the word.  Of course, that was with Tannehill in command who at least checks to the correct plays more often than not.  The Dolphins have surprised a lot of people up to this point, but their run comes to an end here.  This Steelers team is too high powered on offense with Ben, Bell, and Brown all playing their 1st playoff game together.  It's too bad for them, because I would've picked this team over the Raiders or Texans had they been lucky enough to play them.

Steelers 31 - 21



New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

By far the hardest game to pick this weekend.  The Giants have all the pieces to return to the Super Bowl this season, with an OK offense and an above average defense.  The problem is the Packers stand in the way who are just a different team at home.  They've won 6 in a row and seem to have all of their offense clicking just at the right time.  This game is going to come down to one thing: Eli Manning.  If Manning plays well, the Giants win and if he has 2 turnovers or more, the Giants lose.  Unfortunately for the Giants, ball security isn't exactly Eli's specialty.

Packers 28 - 27