Wednesday, January 28, 2015

NFL Super Bowl XLIX




How can the NFL season already be over?  It seems like just yesterday the Bears were letting me down.  Or Andy Dalton was throwing another pick.  Or Ray Rice was punching his wife.... Where does the time go?

As always, I'll be sad to see the season end, but at least we have one heck of a Super Bowl to end on.  I really feel like these are the best 2 teams in the NFL playing in the Super Bowl this year, which surprisingly doesn't happen very often.  Even last year, I'd argue that the 49ers were a better team than the Broncos.  This Super Bowl is one of the hardest ones I've ever predicted because these teams match up so evenly.  Even Vegas agrees by posting betting odds of Patriots -1 (which means they predict a 1 point game with the Pats winning).  That's an incredibly rare betting odd in any game, let alone a Super Bowl, so I think were in for a good one.

To pick the Super Bowl winner, I'll compare both teams in 7 categories and whichever team has the edge in the most categories is my pick.  Let's get crackalackin!


Quarterback
I don't care if you like 'em or not, both of these quarterbacks are a lot of fun to watch.  They just play the position right.  Tom Brady is going to go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and Russell Wilson is on track to follow right behind.  Wilson has the big advantage of his mobility, which is always hard for defenses to game plan for.  As far as arm strength goes, I would have said Wilson has the edge here too if not for watching Tom Brady prove me wrong by launching some bombs to Edleman and Gronk late this season.  I wouldn't say Brady has a better arm than Wilson at this point in his career, but he can still make all of the throws he needs to.  This is a really tough one, but I do have to give Brady the edge in this position simply because of his experience in Super Bowls and games in general.  I mean, the guys played in over 200 NFL games!  If I had to have one of these guys on my team for 1 game, I'd still have to take Brady.  Keep your chin up, Wilson.  Something tells me I'll be saying the same thing about you in the years to come.
Patriots


Running Back
To be honest, I have no idea who the Patriots starting running back is.  I don't think anyone knows, actually.  Bill Belichick included.  I'm pretty sure their depth chart adjusts every time a player gives Belichick a dirty look in the hall.  Either way, who am I to judge their methods if they got them to the Big Game.  I may not know who Belichick will choose to start this week, but I do know this:  If Marshawn Lynch was on his team, this wouldn't even be a discussion.  Apparently Lynch has discovered the fountain of youth, or the Lazarus Pit (That's a Batman reference for you laypersons) and has defied the laws of aging yet again.  He is the only reason the Seahawks have the leagues #1 rushing attack, and the reason the Seahawks take this category.
Seahawks


Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
In my opinion, the Seahawks offense has actually taken a decent step back this year.  Heck, if Lynch weren't playing one of his best postseasons, they would have taken a full leap back.  Think about it.  Harvin didn't pan out quite as expected and they got rid of their former #1 Golden Tate.  That means their #1 receiver is.... Doug Baldwin?  No offense to him, but Doug Baldwin and #1 receiver don't really belong in the same sentence together.  Unless your saying something like: "Hey, the Seahawks need a #1 receiver, because Doug Baldwin isn't one."  On the flip side, the Patriots don't really have a plethora of good receivers either, but they do have a healthy Gronkowski (for once).  He's going to be a match-up nightmare for the Seahawks defense, and he alone is the reason why the Pats get this category.
Patriots


Defensive Line
It's a good thing these teams have good secondaries, because their D-lines haven't exactly been "lighting it up" as of late.  Both teams rank in the lower half of the NFL in sacks and have struggled mightily against the run at some points during the season.  If I had to pick one category that I thought both teams would most need to improve on, this would be it.  The Patriots actually have more sacks this season, but at the same time, they have to go up against Lynch and the #1 rushing attack in the NFL.  Look for Lynch to run to the outside a bit more than usual to avoid Wilfork in the middle for New England.  With all that being said, I think that if you purely look at the task ahead for each defensive line, you gotta go with the Seahawks.  Tom Brady is a great quarterback, but he's a statue in the pocket, while Wilson is one of the toughest players in the league to bring down because of his scrambling ability.  By virtue of difficulty, the Seahawks win this one.
Seahawks


Secondary
This is probably the hardest category I have to pick.  Honestly, I'd love to have either of these units on my side for the Super Bowl.  To me, Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis even each other out (I'm assuming Sherman's arm is ok after two weeks) and Chancellor and Browner even each other out too.  By the way, I know "technically" Chancellor is a safety, but with all of the different looks Seattle gives and the one on one coverage he has to often play, I think it's fair to compare the two.  However, I haven't even mentioned the best player in either team's secondary yet.  That man is Earl Thomas.  Earl Thomas is the best player on Seattle's defense, yet he's constantly overlooked because he isn't as vocal with the media.  A great safety does so much for a defense, and when the secondaries are as close as these two, it's enough to give Seattle the slight edge in this category.
Seahawks


 Special Teams
This is where the Seahawks are going to miss Percy Harvin.  He returned kickoffs in one game for them last season, but that happened to be the Super Bowl... and he did a pretty dang good job that day.  They don't have that sheer speed this year, so they'll have to rely on some good blocking and mistakes by the opposing team.  Unfortunately for them, the Patriots historically, don't make many mistakes.  On the flip side, Julian Edelman has been tearing it up lately on kickoffs and punts.  He leads every team this postseason in return yards on only six attempts.  As far as kickers go, you can't really go wrong with either one in this game, but if I had to choose one, I'd take Gostkowski sheerly because of his reliability.  He kicked an incredible 94.6% this season, while Hauschka kicked 83.8%.
Patriots


Coaching
It's pretty difficult to definitively say which head coach is the better coach when the two have such different coaching styles.  Belichick always coaches according to the team he faces.  He finds the opposing teams biggest weakness and comes up with the perfect plan to expose it on the field.  Carroll on the other hand does the opposite.  He's a motivator who doesn't make a separate plan for any team.  He's the kind of coach that states "We don't care who we play, we're tougher than you and were going to come right at you."  If I were an owner, I'd love to have either of them coaching my team, but just for this game, I think I would have to take Belichick.  Both teams have weaknesses, but I think Belichick will put forth a lot of effort in testing the Seahawks injuries and finding the best place to attack them.  By the way, I know what your thinking and the answer is yes:  this is the ONLY picture of Belichick smiling in existence.
Patriots

There you go.  With a close match of 4-3, the Patriots seem to have a slight edge.

 Therefore, I will go with the New England Patriots to defeat the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX 24 - 20.






Sunday, January 18, 2015

NFL Championship Picks



I think we can all agree that in the NFL, the best teams normally makes the conference championship.  This year is no different.  A lot of people will look at the Colts and say they're probably the team that doesn't really belong, but as the old saying goes: you'll  go as far as your quarterback can take you.  When it came down to one game, Andrew Luck was up to the task while Manning faltered like he normally does in the playoffs.  Manning is an incredible quarterback, and losing doesn't take anything away from his legacy, but that's because his legacy is an amazing quarterback who lacked that "extra gear" in the playoffs.  That's something you can't measure or teach.  You've either got it or you don't.  As far as the Dallas game goes, that was the right call on a terrible rule.  That's all in the past now though.  On to the future:

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Believe it or not I actually waited this long to publish this post on purpose.  I'm not just a hopeless procrastinator... Well not in this instance anyway.  I waited for one reason : Aaron Rodgers injury.  To me this one factor makes the difference in who wins this game.  Seattle's pass rush is going to blow past the Green Bay offensive line and if Rodgers can't rely on his mobility, this is going to be a long day for Green Bay.  Unfortunately for the Packers, I've seen nothing that suggests that Rodgers calf is any better than last week.  Thus I'm forced to go with the home team to return to the Super Bowl.
Seahawks 27 -  21



Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Did you know Tom Brady has the most playoff wins of any quarterback in NFL history?  As much as people love to hate Tom Brady, you can't deny he is one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time.  If he wins one more Super Bowl, he will be tied with Joe Montana for the most Super Bowl wins.  Only two games stand in the way, but these next two games are difficult to say the least.  The Colts provide an interesting challenge for the Patriots this week because of their pass defense.  Last week, it felt like the Patriots almost never ran the ball against the Ravens and the reason it feels like that is because they didn't.  They knew the Ravens secondary was depleted with injuries so they attacked it almost every play.  They can't do the same thing with the Colts this week.  If the Patriots can't get some kind of running game going, they will lose this game.  The Colts secondary played amazingly last week against the Broncos,  but if they want to beat the Patriots this week, they'll have to play even better.  In the end, I believe the Colts will be able to stop everybody but Gronk, and in the end, that's the difference in this game.
Patriots 34 - 30

Friday, January 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Playoffs 2015



Now things start to get interesting.  No offense to Wild Card week, but that went exactly as expected.  The Bengals and Lions lost in the first round for the 15 millionth time and Ryan Lindley successfully gave a sub .500 team an easy road playoff win.  Come on, who didn't see that coming?  

It's always hard to pick against a home team in the playoffs, but I feel like this year, it's nearly impossible.  The four teams with a first-round bye this year have a combined home record of 30 - 2.  Normally, I pick an upset or two, but this week I'm not sure I can.  Here are my picks:

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks hit their stride at the right time again this year.  Looks like their Superbowl hangover ended at just the right time, but I'm still concerned about their offense.  Their defense will cover a lot of their offenses mistakes by keeping them in any game, but the Seahawks offense is worse than last year with losing Golden Tate to free agency and with Percy Harvin not quite working out as expected.  On the flip side, you have a Panthers team which no one's going to give any chance to win this game... with me included.
Seahawks 31 - 17

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
This is one of those games where I really, really, REALLY want to pick the visiting team.  I feel like Andrew Luck has made some strides this year and I believe the Colts are finally giving him full control of his team.  Unfortunately for him, his team just isn't good enough on defense to slow down Manning and the Broncos enough to win this game.  See, how you beat Peyton is actually pretty simple:  You play close press coverage and get a lot of pressure on him with your front four.  That's how the Patriots, Rams, and Seahawks beat them this year.  Unfortunately for the Colts, they just don't have the players up front right now to get that done.  Oh well, there's always next years playoffs, which is more than most teams can say.
Broncos 34 - 27

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
This game is exactly what the Patriots didn't want.  I'd argue that the Ravens actually match up better against the Patriots than any other team in the Playoffs this year.  They're a balanced team with an experienced quarterback (usually the Patriots weakness), and they're one of only two teams who have beat them at home in the playoffs in the last 10 years.  The Patriots normally win by finding your biggest weakness and exposing it on the field.  Remember their game against the Colts this season?  Yeah, there's a reason they ran the ball 44 times that game... The Ravens, however, don't have any glaring weaknesses at this point.  On the flip side, while the Ravens don't have any obvious weaknesses, they don't really have any clear advantages either.  With the exception of running back, the Patriots have the edge in pretty much every position.  Although I'd like to see the Ravens pull off the upset, I've learned last year about picking as a fan of the underdog instead of with my brain.  It won't happen this year.
Patriots 28 - 21

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
I'm actually shocked at how many "experts" are picking the Cowboys to win this game.  Yes, they beat Seattle and they've shown great confidence and poise through their season.  They've had a great season and proved me and everyone else in the world wrong, and for that I applaud them.  But their season ends here.  They barely beat the Lions who, while making great strides this season, are still far off from the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have lost in their first playoff game each of the last 3 seasons, but this year something feels different.  That's the feeling of the Packers kryptonite (the 49ers) heading home early this year.  If Aaron Rodgers can play the whole game, the Packers should be able to expose the Cowboys "average at best" defense and Romo and the offense will not be able to keep up.  The Cowboys formula for success is to run the ball to take pressure off of Romo and the passing game and create time for him to throw.  But when your playing from behind, you don't have the luxury of time to run the ball.  Look for a high scoring game with Green Bay moving on to Seattle.
Packers 38 - 31