Now things start to get interesting. No offense to Wild Card week, but that went exactly as expected. The Bengals and Lions lost in the first round for the 15 millionth time and Ryan Lindley successfully gave a sub .500 team an easy road playoff win. Come on, who didn't see that coming?
It's always hard to pick against a home team in the playoffs, but I feel like this year, it's nearly impossible. The four teams with a first-round bye this year have a combined home record of 30 - 2. Normally, I pick an upset or two, but this week I'm not sure I can. Here are my picks:
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks hit their stride at the right time again this year. Looks like their Superbowl hangover ended at just the right time, but I'm still concerned about their offense. Their defense will cover a lot of their offenses mistakes by keeping them in any game, but the Seahawks offense is worse than last year with losing Golden Tate to free agency and with Percy Harvin not quite working out as expected. On the flip side, you have a Panthers team which no one's going to give any chance to win this game... with me included.
Seahawks 31 - 17
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
This is one of those games where I really, really, REALLY want to pick the visiting team. I feel like Andrew Luck has made some strides this year and I believe the Colts are finally giving him full control of his team. Unfortunately for him, his team just isn't good enough on defense to slow down Manning and the Broncos enough to win this game. See, how you beat Peyton is actually pretty simple: You play close press coverage and get a lot of pressure on him with your front four. That's how the Patriots, Rams, and Seahawks beat them this year. Unfortunately for the Colts, they just don't have the players up front right now to get that done. Oh well, there's always next years playoffs, which is more than most teams can say.
Broncos 34 - 27
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
This game is exactly what the Patriots didn't want. I'd argue that the Ravens actually match up better against the Patriots than any other team in the Playoffs this year. They're a balanced team with an experienced quarterback (usually the Patriots weakness), and they're one of only two teams who have beat them at home in the playoffs in the last 10 years. The Patriots normally win by finding your biggest weakness and exposing it on the field. Remember their game against the Colts this season? Yeah, there's a reason they ran the ball 44 times that game... The Ravens, however, don't have any glaring weaknesses at this point. On the flip side, while the Ravens don't have any obvious weaknesses, they don't really have any clear advantages either. With the exception of running back, the Patriots have the edge in pretty much every position. Although I'd like to see the Ravens pull off the upset, I've learned last year about picking as a fan of the underdog instead of with my brain. It won't happen this year.
Patriots 28 - 21
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
I'm actually shocked at how many "experts" are picking the Cowboys to win this game. Yes, they beat Seattle and they've shown great confidence and poise through their season. They've had a great season and proved me and everyone else in the world wrong, and for that I applaud them. But their season ends here. They barely beat the Lions who, while making great strides this season, are still far off from the Packers. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have lost in their first playoff game each of the last 3 seasons, but this year something feels different. That's the feeling of the Packers kryptonite (the 49ers) heading home early this year. If Aaron Rodgers can play the whole game, the Packers should be able to expose the Cowboys "average at best" defense and Romo and the offense will not be able to keep up. The Cowboys formula for success is to run the ball to take pressure off of Romo and the passing game and create time for him to throw. But when your playing from behind, you don't have the luxury of time to run the ball. Look for a high scoring game with Green Bay moving on to Seattle.
Packers 38 - 31
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