NFL Season Predictions 2017
Tomorrow, NFL Football is FINALLY back. For anyone wondering, I am now busy every Monday, Thursday, and Sunday night from now till early February. Calls will go straight to voicemail and texts may go un-answered. If you need to get in touch, your best bet is to write your message with pepperoni on a pizza and slide it under the door. I'll get back to you on February 5th. On to the picks!
RAVENS
I always wait until at least after the 3rd Preseason game to write this post, because there always seems to be one team that's just destroyed by injuries. That team this year is the Baltimore Ravens. Since June 1st, the Ravens have averaged placing 1 player on IR every 2 weeks. And those are just the players out for the season. I'm not even talking about the other players expected to miss multiple weeks. All of these injuries have virtually destroyed any chance they had of winning the AFC North this season. On top of all that, Bell just signed his franchise tag, so get ready two more losses Baltimore.
STEELERS
The Steelers continue to amaze me by playing hardball with maybe the best RB in the league in Bell. At just age 25, he'll probably be among the leagues best for another 4 or 5 years, yet they continue to avoid the multi-year contract to "keep their options open" i guess. Regardless, they have maybe the best RB and WR combo in the NFL and I would predict points-a-plenty (that means draft Bell or Brown in fantasy by the way).
BENGALS
Cincinnati's only real changes were those of rookie draft picks Joe Mixon and John Ross who should have an eventual positive impact on the offense, but I believe that this impact will be later rather than sooner. Also, Vontaze Burfict still refuses to play nicely with others. What else is new. Him and Suh must have a wager going to see who can be suspended for the most games in their careers.
BROWNS
The Browns on the other hand we're quite the interesting team to watch this offseason. With a new quarterback at the helm in Kizer, have the Browns finally found a player to build a team around? If I had to guess, I would say this about Kizer's potential success in the NFL: "We'll see". Pretty in-depth analytics there I know. In all seriousness, he looks pretty decent. Of course, it could just be because he was playing directly after Osweiler. The old "surround yourself with worse players to look better" trick. Works like a charm.
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
Baltimore Ravens 7-9
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
Cleveland Browns 4-12
COLTS
Andrew Luck had better get healthy quick. Aside from the Jets, I'll pick any team in the NFL to beat the Colts in his absence. Their backup QB situation is shaky at best and that team will go absolutely nowhere without Luck. Not much else to say about this squad. Essentially the same team as last year with a few minor additions/subtractions, so expect the same results. What's the definition of insanity again? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result..... yeah.
JAGUARS
Speaking of bad QB situations, how about those Jaguars? Blake Bortles has somehow gotten progressively worse since his rookie season after appearing to be a promising young player. Mark my words: The Jags WILL be picking a QB in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. On the other side of the ball, the good news is their defense should take another step forward. Unfortunately, they'll be on the field a lot between Bortles throwing picks and Fournette's inability to stay on the field. I hate to predict injuries, but between his high-risk running style and his past injury history, it's only a matter of time before he's added to the injury report. A shame, because I think he has a chance to be a really good player if he had a better O-line.
TEXANS
Prayers for Houston as they rebuild their city. In the football world, there's reasons for optimism in Houston not only for drafting what looks like a good player in Watson, but also ridding themselves of the terrible contract that was Brock Osweiler. It's rare that you get a chance to get out of a bad contract in professional sports, but the Texans found a way. Their defense should be among the elite again this season, but question marks remain on the offense. Can they put up enough points to win the division for a 3rd consecutive year? Maybe, if Tennessee wasn't standing in the way.
TITANS
Tennessee is the best team in the AFC South on paper and in reality. Marcus Mariota is a fantastic NFL quarterback in the making. He's progressed every year as an NFL QB should (take note Bortles) and finally has some legit weapons at his disposal in Eric Decker and Corey Davis. The one-two punch with Murray and Henry is the envy of most NFL backfields. For those pointing to the Titans poor preseason outings, I would point to Mariota's 110 rating with 2 TDs in 36 throws and the fact that Murray only has 6 rushing attempts all preseason. Yeah, I believe they'll be just fine.
Tennessee Titans 11-5
Houston Texans 8-8
Indianapolis Colts 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
JETS
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Let's start with the Ugly: The New York Jets. If there was ever a team trying harder to lose than the Jets this season, I don't remember them. Mainly, because I don't spend valuable brain space remembering terrible teams. Seriously, almost every move this offseason has looked like it's a move to lose, including trading Sheldon Richardson to Seattle. Kearse can only help you if you have a QB who can actually get him the ball.
BILLS
The Bills trading Sammy Watkins was puzzling as well. Jordan Matthews isn't in the same tier as Watkins and now McCoy can expect to have to play against loaded boxes because they don't have a true vertical threat anymore. The Bills seem like they're always a couple players away from making the playoffs, and then they do something to get worse. I project the longest playoff drought in the NFL continues at least another year.
DOLPHINS
Miami is the closest to unseating the perpetual AFC East Champion Patriots, but they too have some issues. Cutler in for Tannehill is essentially a lateral move, but their schedule is more difficult by facing the NFC South instead of the NFC West. Wins will be hard to come by in Miami this season. They have the talent to prove me wrong, but something about a Cutler-led squad leaves me with little faith in the Dolphins playoff hopes. Sorry Miami, but I have a lot of experience rooting for Cutler-led teams.
PATRIOTS
Then there's the Patriots. I'm sure I'll get a lot of flack about this after their first loss, but I'm all in on this squad this year - undefeated. That may seem crazy, but let's review the evidence:
1. Tom Brady lost 1 game last year - vs Seattle on a last minute no-call in the endzone.
2. The Patriots added Brandin Cooks, Mike Gillislee, Dwayne Allen on Offense and they maintained a majority of their Super Bowl winning defense.
3. The NFL schedule has set them up for their best chance to go undefeated since 2007. Their toughest games are @ home vs the Falcons (Tom Brady has a 120 and 21 record at home), @ the Broncos (directly after their bye), @ the Steelers (The Patriots have beat the Steelers 5 out of the last 6 times they've played) @ the Raiders (Actually in Mexico City, so essentially a "road game" that's actually at a neutral site), and vs the Chiefs at home (where the Patriots are 14-1 in home openers since 2002).
It's easy to pick them to lose a game or two if you don't pick the game associated with the loss, but when you actually have to pick a specific team to beat them on their schedule... Good Luck. I can't remember a team being more of a favorite to return to the Super Bowl as the Patriots are this season.
New England Patriots 16-0
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Buffalo Bills 6-10
New York Jets 1-15
RAIDERS
Behold, the best division in football! Honestly, if the AFC West didn't have to play each other, I think all 4 of these teams could make the playoffs this season. I believe we should all thank the Raiders for coaxing Marshawn Lynch out of retirement. The NFL is much more fun with Beast Mode barreling over defenders and making press conferences worth watching. The Raiders also possess one of the best O-lines in the NFL, so I could see this being a match made in heaven. Derek Carr has continued to progress as well. He's looking like a franchise player and it's possible we'll look back at the Raiders draft of Carr and Mack as one of the team's best all time.
CHIEFS
The Chiefs made one of the most interesting moves this season by drafting Mahomes in the first round. This is a team that's a few pieces away from a Super Bowl run, so drafting a QB in the first round really speaks to how much they believe in Mahomes. Kareem Hunt will have his hands full taking the lead back role in Ware's absence. We'll see if he can adapt to the NFL pass protection required of RB's. That's usually the biggest weak spot of rookie running backs.
BRONCOS
Denver may have had the most uneventful offseason of all. They did a bit to improve their offensive line, but the biggest takeaway I had throughout their preseason is that Paxton Lynch does not look good. He still looks uncomfortable in the pocket and makes erratic decisions. Not exactly the progress Denver is looking for out of their former first round selection. The saving grace of this group is that their defense should still be among the league's elite. That should be enough to win a good amount of games, but this group will likely struggle against the league's elite teams. Still, the playoffs are within reach if they can conjure up enough offense.
CHARGERS
To Ron Burgandy and the whole Channel 4 News team's dismay, the Chargers are no longer in San Diego. It must be nice to live in a city where there's simply too much else to do besides watch football. Anyway, the Los Angeles Chargers didn't acquire much to help their team take a step forward, but they're finally healthy. No NFL team had more players end up on IR than the Chargers. Simply put, we have no idea what this squad is capable of because next to none of them played last season. Keenan Allen looks great and Melvin Gordon looks like he has vision; the one knock I had on him before the preseason. All in all, this squad is one that teams will not look forward to facing because I believe they're going to be unpredictable. As in, some weeks they'll stand with the class of the NFL, and other weeks they'll fall to teams with much less talent then they have. In other words, different city, same team.
Oakland Raiders 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
Denver Broncos 9-7
Los Angeles Chargers 8-8
NFC North
PACKERS
The Packers own the NFC North. As a Bears fan, it pains me to admit that, but it's true. Aaron Rodgers is 39-13 against the NFC North in his career and he'll continue to be dominant until he retires or gets hit by a bus. The Packers problem this year (as with virtually every year) is their defense. They should be better than last year, but there are still question marks all over the place on defense. The Packers attempted to address this in the draft by selecting 4 defensive players with their first 4 picks, but even with these selections I'm still not sold on this group. The simple fact is there are offenses who rival Green Bay this season, so they'll need 110% from their defense to keep up with groups like the Patriots and Falcons.
VIKINGS
The Vikings are probably the next closest to competing in this division, but I can't get on board with that offense yet. Really, the Vikings and Packers should just form an alliance and run the Packers offense with the Vikings defense. That'd be a Super Bowl team: The Green Bay Vikings. Alas, it's not meant to be (something about league rules and whatnot), so the Vikings will march out Sam Bradford and his dump off skills with new rookie running back Dalvin Cook. Cook has all the talent needed to succeed, but he's playing behind a below-average offensive line in an offense that he'll need to be the focal point. That's a lot of pressure on a rookie and I project he'll struggle in pass protection early on, but eventually be a good foundation to build the offense on.
LIONS
For those of you who haven't heard: Matthew Stafford is now the highest paid player in the NFL. This offseason, the Lions gave Stafford a 5-Year $132,000,000 contract with a whopping $92,000,000 guaranteed. The highest paid player in NFL history is now a 29 year old quarterback who has never won a playoff game. Ok, I realize I'm not exactly being fair to Stafford as he is a talented quarterback, but I'm using these facts to illustrate 2 points: 1) Every year there will be another record contract from a quarterback and 2) There are two types of teams in the NFL: Those with a franchise quarterback and those who would do anything to get one. If Kirk Cousins accepts anything less than Stafford next season, he should fire his agent and I'll go represent him for a tenth of the cost. In other news, the defense is essentially still intact, and Abdullah is actually somewhat healthy so the running game should be more consistent. Although, if it were me, I think I'd put in Zach Zenner over Abdullah. He looked like what a lot of people project McCaffrey to look like this season. The big change in the Lions record this season has to do with their schedule being much more difficult than last season. Luckily, since they never do anything in the playoffs anyway, the only difference is that they'll have a higher draft pick next year. Spend it on a competent secondary.
BEARS
Then we have the Bears. It's been a roller coaster offseason for Chicago fans. We went from hope to getting Jimmy Garoppolo, to disgust with the front office for drafting Trubisky, to screaming at the front office to start Trubisky over Glennon. Emotions fared, name calling emerged, and after the smoke cleared I think all Bears fans can join me in my overall thoughts from the offseason: I'm as excited as I've been in a long time. Trubisky looks like the best quarterback in this class. His accuracy, mobility, pocket awareness, and command of the offense looks like a player who's been in the league for years. He'll make his fair share of rookie mistakes, but at the end of the day, he has all the tools to be successful in the NFL. The only question is will the Bears hinder is development. Hopefully not.... Other than that as most people would suspect, this team isn't winning many games this season. They have a difficult schedule (as does the whole NFC North) and just had their #1 WR go down on IR. There are bright spots to be found on the Bears, so Bears fans focus on those encouraging moments, because there will be a lot of bad football in-between.
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Detroit Lions 6-10
Chicago Bears 4-12
NFC South
FALCONS
This one will sting for years Falcon's fans. Possibly the worst choke in Super Bowl history. You just had to convert ONE 3rd down. Oh well, there's always next year. Except this year they'll be without one of the best offensive minds in the game in Kyle Shanahan. As well, the Falcons were among the only teams in the NFL that had all 5 offensive linemen play together all year. Almost every other team had at least 1 injury in that department. The odds of that happening again are not good. Nevertheless, this is still an elite offensive team with a slightly above average defense who should bounce back to at least have another shot in the playoffs, even if things aren't set up quite as nice as last season.
SAINTS
I'd bet my paycheck that Adrian Peterson retires a Viking. I'm not projecting he'll leave the Saints and head back to Minnesota. I just think the Vikings will do one of those dumb 1 day contracts so he can retire a Viking. Come on, everyone knows that's not the same thing as "Retiring a Viking". It's about as useless as bringing out the chains to measure a first down when it completely depends on where the ref put the ball in the first place. I am interested to see how the Saints use Peterson. Historically he isn't a strong receiver out of the backfield, but I can't imagine a Saints offense where that isn't built into his duties. The Saints made a good move signing him in my opinion because really, what do you have to lose? You have the cap money to spend this season and why not take a risk on a running back who will do down as one of the all time greats? The Saints big problem is running back wasn't one of their "weak positions" last season. There simply weren't the free agents this season out there to fill the Saints needs.
PANTHERS
Did you know that the Panthers were the only team in the last 8 years to lose the Super Bowl and miss the playoffs the next year? Not the lone company you want to be in, but things are looking up for this squad. Christian McCaffrey looks like the same dynamic player he looked like in College. He has maybe the best ability to find holes in defenses of any running back in this draft. But he's still a rookie and I believe the Panthers will still work Stewart in a healthy amount this season. Also, a year later, I still don't understand getting rid of Norman. I do think Norman is overrated, but he was their best CB and they basically decided to get rid of him a year before they had to for... nothing I guess. All in all, if Cam can stay healthy this season, they should be a better balanced offense and have a good chance to get back to having a winning record.
BUCCANEERS
Winston is a frustrating player to watch. Some games he'll showcase unbelievable athleticism and make incredible throws with pin-point accuracy. And then sometimes he'll look like he did in the preseason. He throws some of the worst picks you'll ever see a starting quarterback throw (although the Jets may have something to say about that). Luckily for him, the talent around him this season is considerably better than last season and he actually might have a running game this season. Also, Tampa Bay got one of the best value's in this year's draft with O.J. Howard falling as far as he did right into their lap. I project Winston and Howard to have quite the connection for years to come. In the end, I believe Winston will be able to cut out enough of his mistakes to give the Buccaneers a legitimate shot to make the playoffs this season.
Atlanta Falcons 10-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
Carolina Panthers 9-7
New Orleans Saints 7-9
NFC East
REDSKINS
I am shocked at how the Redskins are handling the Kurt Cousins contract situation. I believe he's a top 15 quarterback in the league. A quarterback that about half of the teams wouldn't think twice about giving a long term contract to. I don't think they'll let him get away, but if they do he'll be the starting quarterback for Shanahan once again in San Francisco. On offense, they added Pryor to try to replace DeSean Jackson, which in my eyes is a slight bump up. It's rare for a free agent wide receiver to make a big impact in their first season, so I'd tell Washington fans to curb their expectations, but there's reason for optimism. All things considered, this is a pretty good football team with the unfortunate reality of playing in the loaded NFC East. They'd be a playoff team in some other divisions.
EAGLES
The Eagles were probably the hardest team to project a record for this season. Mainly because no one knows what Wentz will look like this season. He had a pretty good rookie year, but will he go through a sophomore slump or build off of his success? The biggest hole in the Eagles roster is probably still running back even after acquiring Blount from the Patriots. Having a sub-par running game will make Wentz's job that much harder, but he does now have Alshon Jeffrey who (if he can stay healthy) has shown that he can be a #1 wide receiver. His progression is the single biggest priority of the Eagles this season.
COWBOYS
Ezekiel Elliot will be suspended the full 6 games. The NFL is not backing down on this one. The NFL is protecting the brand and frankly I don't think there's any way Elliot wins his lawsuit. He'll delay it as long as he can, but the end result is still going to be him riding the bench for 6 weeks. Luckily for the Cowboys, their really tough games happen later in the season, so they should have him back for those. The Cowboys worries don't hinge on Elliot's availablity though; they rest on how their defense is going to stop opposing offenses. The Cowboys have one of the worst defensive groups in the league this season and they will have to face some of the NFL's most high powered offenses. Therefore, I have broken down a simple math equation to project the Cowboys wins: Elliot (#21) - 6 games = 15 - # of letters in "Dallas" (6) = 9 wins.
Sorry Cowboys fans. That math is rock solid.
GIANTS
If only this squad had a running game... Seriously, the Giants have an excellent defense and should have a stellar passing game with the addition of Brandon Marshall opposite Beckham. Their problem teams will simply not fear their running ability. This offense has a so-so O-line with a less than spectacular group of running backs. That adds up to a whole lot of extra DB's on the field ready to minimize all the holes in the passing defense. Eli needs to be ready to throw some extremely accurate passes, otherwise this team will have a hard time moving the ball. Luckily for the Giants, he's done it before, and he can do it again. They have the talent to win the division this season.
New York Giants 10-6
Dallas Cowboys 9-7
Washington Redskins 9-7
Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
NFC West
CARDINALS
For our last stop in our divisional previews we have a division that just a few seasons ago many people would have said was the NFL's best. Yet they've fallen a long way since the Harbaugh-Carroll rivalry days and have left us with one of the worst divisions in football. The Cardinals surprised me and many other people with how bad they played last season. On paper, they looked like they could be ready to make another Super Bowl run, but when the whistle was blown, they tripped on the first hurdle. Granted they had a lot of injuries last season, but so did virtually every team. In the end, I view this team in the same way I view the Panthers: There's too much talent on this team to have another bad season like that. I project a bounce back year with a possibility for ta playoff appearance.
SEAHAWKS
If the Seahawks could just get a decent offensive line, they would rival the Patriots for the most talented roster in the NFL. Yet, they start the season with maybe the leagues worst O-line and a group of running backs where no one has done anything to separate themselves from the pack. Still, this remains one of the NFL's best defenses with a quarterback who looks ready to take the next step in Wilson. If the offensive line can keep him upright enough, he should be able to lead this squad to another NFC West title.
RAMS
Don't push the panic button on Goff yet, Rams fans. Although, you may want to have your finger ready just in case. Goff has looked... eh, decent this preseason and Jeff Fischer a.k.a the "quaterback killer" is gone. Honestly, if I were the Rams, I would take a page out of the Vikings playbook of old and run the entire offense through Gurley. Granted Gurley is no Peterson, but he's a very talented running back who can break tackles and catch out of the backfield. Also the addition of Sammy Watkins should help the running game, because if he can stay on the field, defenses may actually have to respect the Rams vertical passing game. Maybe Gurley won't have to run against a loaded box all season. Maybe.
49ERS
The 49ers begin the season in full rebuilding mode and while they won't win a lot of games this season, SF fans should feel good about the direction their squad is moving. I believe Shanahan will do a fantastic job with this group and in a year or two I project they will be a very good football team. The 49ers know that this next draft is absolutely loaded with quarterback talent which happens to be their weakest position. I believe their management has done a good job planning for a team that's going to have a relatively quick turnaround to be one of the better teams in the NFL. All things considered, I like the direction the 49ers are heading, but this season will be a rough one. Sit tight 49ers fans. Better days are ahead.
Seattle Seahawks 11-5
Arizona Cardinals 9-7
San Francisco 49ers 5-11
Los Angeles Rams 3-13
Super Bowl 52 Prediction:
I'll take the New England Patriots to defeat the Green Bay Packers 34 - 27
Enjoy the season everyone!
